Build the forecast from commitments
We start with available cash, expected customer receipts and a dated list of payments. A grain contract, approved service invoice and hoped-for sale are different levels of certainty. Showing them separately makes it easier to test whether the business can absorb a late receipt without missing a critical commitment.
Payments include more than operating expenses. Equipment deposits, loan principal, taxes and owner withdrawals can all affect the cash position. The forecast identifies which amounts are fixed, which can be rescheduled and which require a financing conversation before the supplier deadline.
Test the difficult month first
We use a base case and a delayed-collection case to identify the lowest expected balance. The useful result is the size and timing of the gap, followed by specific actions: confirm delivery dates, collect an approved invoice or discuss terms. An unused credit limit is shown separately from cash, with availability confirmed by the lender.
Illustrative regional grain example
A farm served from Regina starts a spring period with $42,000, expects $31,000 from a grain settlement and has $68,000 of scheduled payments. Its projected closing cash is $5,000. If the settlement slips into the following period, the shortfall becomes $26,000. The forecast makes that timing risk visible before the seeding purchases become urgent.
Questions about this work
Is the forecast a guarantee of available financing?
No. It is a planning model built from stated assumptions. Loan availability, terms and approvals must be confirmed with the lender.
How often should we update it?
Around meaningful changes in receipts or commitments, and more frequently near a tight cash period. The useful frequency depends on the operating cycle.
Put this into practice
Sources and current guidance
A practical next step
Bring the records you have.
We can identify missing information, agree on the scope and organize the next bookkeeping step.
Request a bookkeeping review